Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Odds Surge 89.9pp to 93.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp price rise as market reprices likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on July 12.
Jul 12
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Strait of Hormuz transit drops 23pp despite whale outflows
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall from 67.5% to 44.5% as whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Miami median home value market jumps 29.5 points as whales buy $4K in YES
Price and whale flow moved together as odds for Miami home values rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 18pp to 39.5% with $94K whale support
Whales boosted the 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?' market alongside a sharp price rise, signaling renewed conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 18pp amid whale-price divergence
Whales bought $39K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s YES price fell sharply to 36.5%.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran non-attack odds on Hormuz ships plunge 24.4 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?’ YES contract dropped from 26.0% to 1.6% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 11
Whales
$218K Net Whale Bets on England Clash with 14.4% Market Price for 2026 World Cup
Whales have pushed $1.49M into YES bets over 24 hours despite the market pricing England’s win at 14.4%.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES odds jump 20pp to 56.5% with $16K whale support
Whales bought $29K in YES contracts, aligning with a 20-point jump in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
Linda Nosková’s Wimbledon 2026 odds jump 54.8 pp to 100% as whales back YES
Whale activity and price moved in sync with a $67K net inflow into YES contracts pushing odds from 45.1% to certainty on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
Republican Senate Incumbents Market Jumps 15.1pp to 98.5% on Whale Buying
Whales added $3K into YES as Polymarket sharply reprices odds for two 2026 nominating defeats.
Jul 11