The market question “Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?” saw a sharp drop in its YES contract price, falling 24.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 1.6%, from an estimated 26.0% a day earlier.
This dramatic repricing came amid $185K in trading volume on Polymarket, signaling significant market attention to the geopolitical event. However, the price movement diverged from whale flow, which did not follow the downward trend in the YES contract price.
The divergence between large whale trades and the price decline suggests conflicting signals in the market. Typically, whale activity can confirm or reinforce price moves, but here the whales’ net positions ran counter to the sharp drop in implied probability.
This discrepancy indicates that while the broader market trimmed expectations for Iran to refrain from attacking ships in the Hormuz Strait by Sunday, substantial traders maintained bets or positions inconsistent with this view. The combined effect points to a contested outlook on the likelihood of non-aggression, reflecting uncertainty or differing interpretations among major participants.
Overall, the 24.4-point plunge in odds paired with opposing whale flow highlights a split market reaction, underscoring the complexity and volatility surrounding this prediction market ahead of the weekend deadline.
| Market | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2874930 |
| 24h price change | +24.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 26.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $185K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.