Breaking
Grok Model Market YES Price Plummets 85pp to 1.1% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from the dramatic drop in odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting at 1460 or above by end of 2026.
Jul 11
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on next GPT model debut plunges 87pp despite $20K whale inflow
Whales bought $20K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 87.0% to 0.05% in 24 hours, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale activity.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 15.6 Points as Whale Flow Aligns
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract doubled its odds in 24 hours amid coordinated whale buying.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 25pp despite $51K whale buy flow
Whale purchases of $51K into YES contracts contrast with a sharp 25 percentage point decline in Polymarket odds for a US-Iran meeting by July 17, 2026.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Jump 23.2 Points as Whale Bets Align with Rally
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?' market surged from 12.8% to 35.9% on $34K volume with whale activity confirming the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price falls 47.9 pp despite $9K whale inflow
Whales bought $10K of YES contracts even as the market price plunged from 50.0% to 2.1%, signaling a divergence between price and whale activity.
Jul 11
Breaking
Republican Senate incumbents’ defeat odds jump 17pp to 94.7% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligns with sharp price rise in market on 2026 nominating election outcomes.
Jul 11
Whales
$463K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Norway World Cup Win Defies 5.9% Market Price
Despite a 5.9% market-implied probability, whales have pushed $463K net into Norway winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup over 24 hours.
Jul 11
Whales
$1.26M Net Whale Flow Bets on Belgium to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Price
Whales have poured $1.26M net into Belgium winning, diverging sharply from the market's 0.05% implied probability on $129.28M volume.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price falls 17.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s market on Credible public sale commitment saw YES odds drop from 38.0% to 20.5%, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 11