Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 36.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 12
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 21 pp to 52.5% amid $22K whale bets
Whales pushed net $22K into YES contracts as Polymarket prices for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Riz Ahmed Emmy win odds plunge 25pp to 16.5% as whale flow diverges
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from a 25 percentage point drop in Riz Ahmed’s Emmy odds, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 40pp in 24h
Whale bets diverged sharply from price, signaling a split view on the likelihood of 40 ships crossing by July 31, 2026.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 16pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying diverged sharply from falling market prices, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 31.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price movement as YES contract fell from 69.0% to 37.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 25pp to 47.5% as whales back YES with $141K net buys
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 25.0 percentage point rise in the probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 37pp in 24h
Polymarket's market on Strait of Hormuz ship traffic saw a sharp decline in YES price amid diverging whale activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?” YES price jumps 29.0 pp to 70.0%
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise in odds with $18K net inflow, aligning with the price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 33pp to 36.5% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s market on Strait of Hormuz ship traffic sees a sharp 33 percentage point drop in YES odds, while whale activity contradicts the price move.
Jul 12