The market question “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” experienced a sharp shift in market sentiment over the last 24 hours. The YES contract price dropped by 23.0 percentage points, falling from an estimated 67.5% to 44.5%, signaling a significant reduction in market confidence in this outcome.
Despite this pronounced price decline, whale trading activity diverged from the price movement. Large traders did not increase their net exposure to YES contracts; instead, their flow was inconsistent with the price drop, reflecting a disconnect between volume-weighted price action and whale positioning.
The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while retail or smaller traders sharply downgraded the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline, whales have not followed suit with increased bets against the outcome.
Overall, the combined picture of a steep price drop alongside divergent whale flow highlights a market recalibration on this geopolitical shipping question, with broader participation and conviction uneven across trader types.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 44.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 67.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.