The Polymarket contract on a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall 18.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, declining from an estimated 54.5% to 36.5%.
This sharp downward move in the YES price contrasts with whale trading activity, which diverged from the price trend. Over the same period, whales bought $69K worth of YES contracts and sold $30K, resulting in a net inflow of $39K into YES positions. This signals that despite the falling price, large traders accumulated exposure to the YES outcome.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market was $60K, with lifetime volume reaching $587K and 977 unique traders participating overall. The snapshot from July 12, 2026, shows 116 unique whales engaged in trading, highlighting significant whale interest amid the price decline.
Notably, the Polymarket YES price at this breaking moment (36.5%) differs markedly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 57.0%, suggesting potential discrepancies between market prices and on-chain activity or delayed price updates.
| Market | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2646850 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 54.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 57.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $39K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $69K / $30K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 116 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $60K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 977 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.