The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES price climb 18.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, from an estimated 21.5% to 39.5%, according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 12.
Alongside this rapid repricing, whale traders aligned with the price move, contributing a net $94K of buy flow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $181K against $87K in sell volume, spread across 215 unique whales. This coordinated buying activity supports the tape’s upward shift in odds.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on the market reached $177K, with lifetime volume now at $701K and 771 unique traders participating overall. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 39.5% diverges significantly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 22.5%, indicating a sharp short-term reassessment by traders active on Polymarket’s platform.
This dynamic highlights how whale flow can reinforce major price moves in prediction markets, reflecting shifts in sentiment and information flow.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $94K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $181K / $87K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 215 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $177K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 771 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.