The market for whether Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12 saw a dramatic price increase of 89.9 percentage points within 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 3.9% to 93.8%. This sharp repricing reflects a rapid shift in trader sentiment on Polymarket.
Whale activity tracked closely with the price move, with a net inflow of $4K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $8K, exactly matching the total 24-hour market volume, while whale sell volume was $4K. The market engaged 44 unique whales and 100 unique traders overall, indicating broad participation in this rapid revaluation.
The lifetime market volume stands at $13K, showing that a significant portion of total activity occurred in this recent 24-hour window. The alignment of whale flow and price movement signals consensus among large traders supporting the surge in perceived probability of a successful Iranian shipping attack on July 12.
This combined price and whale flow data suggests a strong market conviction that the event is highly likely to occur, reflecting a major shift in expectations over a short timeframe.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +89.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 93.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 44 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 100 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.