Breaking
LPL MSI 2026 win odds plunge 57.5pp as whale buying diverges from price
YES price on Polymarket dropped from 70.5% to 13.0% despite $42K whale net inflow into YES contracts.
Jul 12
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 76.5 Percentage Points to 83% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp surge in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 12, lifting the market from 6.5% to 83%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping target odds surge 86.2 points to 88.4% with whale buying
Whales backed the sharp jump in probability for Iran targeting shipping on July 12, adding $11K net to YES contracts amid $18K total volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 36.5 pp in 24h
The YES contract price plunged from 70.5% to 34.0% despite whale flow moving against the drop, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price jumps 79.8 pp to 83.2% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour repricing with $5K net flow into YES contracts amid $11K total volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Hormuz drops 31pp amid whale flow divergence
The market’s YES contract fell from 70.5% to 39.5% despite whales not supporting the move, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24.5pp as whales push $156K into YES
Polymarket’s latest data shows a sharp rise in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, backed by aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 70pp to 78.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps from 8.5% to 78.5% as whale flow aligns with the sharp price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 50.4pp to 100% on FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinal scenario
Whale activity aligns with sharp market repricing in Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 86 pp to 89.5% with whale buying
Whales and retail traders pushed the “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” market from 3.4% to 89.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12