The market for “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw a dramatic shift in sentiment over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract price climbing 86.2 percentage points from 2.2% to 88.4%. This sharp repricing reflects a sudden and substantial reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will carry out such an action.
Whale activity tracked alongside this price move, reinforcing the new odds rather than opposing them. Data shows 75 unique whales traded in this market, with net whale flow of $11K into YES contracts. Whale buying volume reached $17K while whale selling was $7K, indicating a strong tilt towards YES positions from large traders.
Polymarket recorded $18K in total 24-hour volume on this question, with a lifetime market volume of $24K and 160 unique traders participating. The alignment of whale flow and price action suggests that large traders have driven the surge in probability, lending conviction to the market’s updated view.
This combined price and whale flow pattern signals a robust consensus among informed participants that Iran targeting shipping on July 12 is now seen as highly probable, marking a significant shift from near-impossible odds just one day earlier.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +86.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $17K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 75 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $18K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 160 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.