The prediction market on whether Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12 surged sharply, with the YES contract price rising 86.0 percentage points from about 3.4% to 89.5% in a single day. This dramatic revaluation reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment around the event.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, as 52 unique large traders contributed a net $4K inflow into YES contracts during the same 24-hour window. These whales bought $9K worth of YES contracts and sold $4K, indicating a strong bias toward the outcome occurring. Total Polymarket volume on the contract over 24 hours was $9K, with lifetime volume at $15K and 113 unique traders participating overall.
The coordinated rise in price and whale buying suggests that both retail and larger participants are increasingly confident in Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 12. The swift repricing and whale flow confirm a marked shift in consensus, signaling heightened perceived risk or information emerging close to the event date.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +86.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 89.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 52 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 113 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.