The market on whether the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 saw its YES price surge 24.5 percentage points over 24 hours, climbing from 21.5% to 46.0% on July 12. This sharp repricing was supported by whale activity, with $156K net inflow into YES contracts amid $300K in buys and $143K in sells by 281 unique whales during the same period. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $281K, within a lifetime volume of $875K and a total of 895 unique traders involved.
Whale flow aligned with the price move, confirming the market’s upward revision of the event’s likelihood. The Polymarket Breaking YES price of 46.0% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid price of 22.5%, indicating a divergence between the real-time market price and the underlying on-chain liquidity snapshot.
This combined surge in price and whale buying suggests a significant shift in sentiment or new information influencing traders’ views on the US imposing a blockade on Iran by the end of July. The sizable whale participation and volume underpin the market’s conviction in the event’s increased probability, reflecting a notable repricing in real time.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +24.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $156K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $300K / $143K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 281 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $281K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 895 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.