The probability that 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, dropped sharply by 31.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 70.5% to 39.5% according to Polymarket’s Breaking feed. This represents a significant repricing in the market’s expectations within one day.
What stands out is the divergence between price action and whale trading flow. While the YES price collapsed, whale activity did not align with this downward move, indicating that large traders did not increase their net exposure to the YES contract during this period. This split between tape and whale flow suggests uncertainty or differing views among market participants about the likelihood of the event.
The market saw $14K in volume during the last 24 hours, reflecting moderate trading interest amid this volatility.
This pattern points to a recalibration of risk around the Strait of Hormuz transit question, with the market sharply lowering its chance but without confirmation from high-value traders. It highlights the complexity of interpreting odds shifts when whale flow and price diverge, underscoring the need to watch both metrics for a fuller picture of market conviction.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +31.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.