The market question “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw a dramatic shift in sentiment over the last 24 hours on Polymarket. The YES contract price fell 36.5 percentage points, dropping from 70.5% to 34.0% as of the July 12 snapshot. This represents a significant revaluation of the likelihood of the event occurring.
What makes this move notable is that the whale flow diverged from the price action. While the YES contract price plummeted, large traders did not follow the selloff; instead, their activity moved against the price decline. This divergence between whale flow and market pricing suggests that despite the broad market reassessing the odds sharply lower, significant capital remains positioned on YES.
Polymarket recorded $14K in volume on this market during this 24-hour window, highlighting active trading amid the price swing. The combination of a steep price drop and opposing whale flow points to tension between retail and large traders’ views or possibly a shift in information available to different market participants.
This price and flow divergence signals a complex market dynamic where the crowd is pricing in a much lower chance for the Strait of Hormuz transit event, while whales appear to maintain conviction or are resisting the move.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.