Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price jumps 30pp to 62.5% with $24K whale inflow
Whales boosted their bets alongside a sharp 30 percentage point rise in Polymarket odds for Russian capture by end of July.
Jul 12
#%sprice movement
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 133 stories.
Breaking
“Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?” YES price plunges 56.5pp amid whale flow-price divergence
Polymarket’s YES price for an LPL MSI 2026 victory falls from 56.5% to 0.05%, while whales add $36K into YES, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 67.5 Points as Whale Activity Supports Rally
The probability of Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 soared to 74.5% amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Collapse 48.3 Points in 24 Hours
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?” market dropped from 48.8% to 0.45% despite no whale buying in YES contracts.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price surges 90.6 pp to 92.9% on whale support
Whales backed a dramatic odds shift on Polymarket as the YES contract jumped from 2.3% to 92.9% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 36.5 pp in 24h
The YES contract price plunged from 70.5% to 34.0% despite whale flow moving against the drop, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Hormuz drops 31pp amid whale flow divergence
The market’s YES contract fell from 70.5% to 39.5% despite whales not supporting the move, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 12
Breaking
Brittany Mahomes Attendance Odds Surge 17.7 Points on Polymarket, Whale Buys Support Move
The YES price on Brittany Mahomes attending Taylor Swift's wedding jumped to 83.7% alongside $2K net whale inflows, reflecting strong alignment between price and large trader activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 20pp to 51.5%, whales back the move with $23K net flow
Polymarket’s “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?” saw a sharp rise in YES price accompanied by strong whale buying activity.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price on Hormuz ship transit plunges 52.5 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s contract on 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 2026 saw a sharp repricing amid contrasting whale activity.
Jul 12