Breaking
Odds for Claude Opus Model Release by July 24, 2026, Drop 21pp Amid Whale Buying
Despite a 21 percentage point drop in YES price, whale flow moved $5K net into YES contracts, signaling a divergence on Polymarket.
Jul 20
#%sprice movement
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 133 stories.
Breaking
Trump WC Champions Photo YES jumps 36.4pp to 99.5% on $1.13M whale inflows
Whales and retail traders aligned as the market surged from 63.0% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES price jumps 37.2 pp to 99.2% on whale buying
Whales added $1.11M net into YES as Polymarket prices surged from 62.0% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES odds jump 36.4 pp to 99.4% on whale buying
Whales drove $1.10M net into YES as the contract surged from 63.0% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo? YES Price Jumps 35.9 Points to 99.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the surge with $1.10M net flow into YES, matching the sharp 24-hour price rise.
Jul 20
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES price jumps 37.6pp to 99.6% with $1.07M whale inflow
Whale buying aligned with a massive odds shift, pushing the market near certainty in just 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES price jumps 37.6 pp to 99.7% on $1.05M whale buying
Whales fueled a sharp rise in Trump photo odds with $1.05M net inflow, pushing YES price from 62.0% to near certainty.
Jul 20
Breaking
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? YES odds drop 19pp despite $7K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from falling market prices, signaling differing views on Tate’s extradition timing.
Jul 20
Breaking
Helen Zille mayor odds plunge 23pp to 44% amid whale flow divergence
Whale buying of $3K in YES contracts contrasts with a sharp 23pp drop in market-implied probability for Helen Zille's Johannesburg mayor bid.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo Odds Surge 38.6pp to 99.1% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $825K net buying as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Trump appearing in the photo.
Jul 20