The probability that SpaceX’s Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 15 plummeted 48.3 percentage points within 24 hours, sliding from 48.8% to just 0.45% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing occurred amid $8K in 24-hour volume but without any whale support for the YES side, as whale flows diverged from the price movement.
Typically, significant price moves on Polymarket are accompanied by large whale bets reinforcing the new market direction. However, in this case, the absence of whale buying suggests that retail traders or smaller participants drove the selloff in YES contracts. The divergence between whale activity and the tape indicates a disconnect between large investors’ views and the broader market sentiment.
This rapid collapse in launch odds reflects a sudden reassessment of the likelihood that SpaceX will meet the mid-July deadline. Ultimately, the combined price and flow signals highlight a market sharply less optimistic about the launch timeline but without endorsement from major liquidity providers.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +48.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.45% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 48.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.