The probability that Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? surged 90.6 percentage points over the past day, climbing from 2.3% to 92.9% on Polymarket. This remarkable repricing reflects a swift and decisive shift in market sentiment.
Whale activity closely aligned with the price move, with a net inflow of $7K into YES contracts during the same 24-hour window. Whale buy volume totaled $14K, outpacing $6K in sell volume, and 70 unique whales participated in the market. Total Polymarket volume for the contract in this period was $14K, indicating that whales accounted for a significant portion of trading.
Since inception, the market has seen $20K in lifetime volume with 152 unique traders engaging, underscoring that this recent surge represents a concentrated burst of conviction rather than a gradual trend.
The combined data of a 90.6 pp price increase and whale-backed buying suggests that informed participants are driving a rapid reassessment of the likelihood of the event. The alignment between whale flow and the price move signals strong consensus among larger traders supporting the new probability level.
This convergence of price and whale activity highlights a pronounced market shift on Polymarket, marking the contract as a focal point for trader attention and conviction on the question of Iran’s actions on July 12.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +90.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $14K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 70 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 152 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.