The market asking if the US will announce a blockade on Iran by August 31 surged 20.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, with the YES price climbing from 31.5% to 51.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed.
This sizable repricing was supported by whale activity, which net bought $23K into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $42K, nearly double the $19K in sell volume, spread across 95 unique whale traders. Overall 24-hour market volume reached $51K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $119K and participation from 224 unique traders.
The alignment between whale flows and the price move signals coordinated conviction behind this shift. Notably, the current Polymarket YES price of 51.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 35.5%, indicating a divergence between the market’s live odds and on-chain valuation.
This combined rise in price and whale buying suggests growing confidence in a US blockade announcement by the August deadline, reflecting increased market attention and capital commitment to that outcome.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2821347 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 35.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $23K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $19K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 95 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $51K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 224 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.