Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24.5pp as whales push $156K into YES
Polymarket’s latest data shows a sharp rise in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, backed by aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 27.1 points to 91%
Whales supported the surge with $2K net buys, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price surges 68pp to 76.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing, pushing the probability from 8.5% to 76.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran market jumps 19pp as whales push YES to 40.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19.0 percentage point rise in YES price on Polymarket, signaling increased conviction in a blockade announcement by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 17pp to 48.5% with whale buying aligned
Whales added $22K to YES in a $48K volume surge as Polymarket prices rose sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Market Surges 89.5pp to 92.9% with Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” contract jumps from 3.5% to 92.9% as whales add $4K net to YES positions.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Julián Álvarez score at 2026 World Cup? YES odds jump 48.9pp to 100%
Whales supported the rally with $2K net flow into YES as Polymarket price surged from 51.0% to full certainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 86 pp to 89.5% with whale buying
Whales and retail traders pushed the “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” market from 3.4% to 89.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 11 jump 22.4 pp to 25.9%
Whale trading aligned with rapid price increase, signaling stronger conviction in the event’s likelihood
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 36.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 12