The market for “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw its YES price plunge 36.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 71.0% to 34.5%. This significant repricing occurred alongside $13K in 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price move: large traders did not back the sharp decline in YES probability, signaling a disconnect between the tape and whale flow. This divergence suggests that while market prices adjusted downward aggressively, the biggest traders did not confirm the shift with corresponding bets.
The drop in implied probability reflects a sudden reassessment of the likelihood that 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by the deadline, but the lack of whale alignment indicates caution or disagreement among major market participants.
Overall, the combined price and flow data highlight a market in flux, with retail or smaller traders driving a steep odds change that is not yet matched by the largest stakeholders.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.