The market on whether the US will announce a blockade on Iran by August 31 saw its YES contract price climb 17.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 31.5% to 48.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 12, 2026.
This sharp repricing coincided with whale activity that reinforced the move. Whale net flow into YES contracts totaled $22K, with $40K in whale buy volume against $18K in sells, across 89 unique whale wallets. The overall 24-hour market volume was $48K, out of a lifetime market volume of $115K and involving 213 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 48.5% diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 35.5%, indicating a split between the live market price and on-chain data snapshots.
The alignment between whale buying and the price increase suggests conviction behind the odds shift rather than a speculative spike. This combined price and flow picture signals a meaningful reassessment of the likelihood that the US will impose a blockade on Iran by the stated deadline, reflecting increased market consensus and capital commitment on this outcome.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2821347 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 35.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $22K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $40K / $18K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 89 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $48K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 213 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.