The probability that Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 11 surged by 22.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, moving from 3.6% to 25.9% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment around the event.
During the same period, whale activity aligned with the price move, indicating that large traders supported the growing expectation of the event occurring. Polymarket recorded $6K in volume over the past day, underscoring active participation amid the rapid odds adjustment.
The coordinated rise in both price and whale flow suggests increased conviction that Iran carried out a successful targeting on the specified date. This alignment between large trader behavior and market pricing points to a consensus building around this outcome’s probability.
Overall, the combined price jump and whale engagement mark a significant shift in market dynamics, indicating that the community is now pricing in a substantially higher chance of the event taking place.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +22.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 25.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.