Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Polymarket’s ‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?’ contract saw a sharp repricing supported by whale flow, pushing odds from 14.5% to 82%.
Whales pushed net $22K into YES contracts as Polymarket prices for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from a 25 percentage point drop in Riz Ahmed’s Emmy odds, signaling conflicting market signals.
Whale bets diverged sharply from price, signaling a split view on the likelihood of 40 ships crossing by July 31, 2026.
Whale buying diverged sharply from falling market prices, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.0 percentage point rise in the Polymarket market's YES price over 24 hours.
Whale activity diverged sharply from price movement as YES contract fell from 69.0% to 37.5% on Polymarket.
Whale flow diverged from sharp 24-hour price decline in Polymarket’s US-Iran diplomatic meeting market.
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 25.0 percentage point rise in the probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31.
Whales bought $43K in YES contracts even as the market price fell 22 percentage points in 24 hours.
