The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged 19.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 21.5% to 40.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed. This sizable price move was supported by whale activity, with 277 unique whales contributing a net $156K inflow into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales bought $299K worth of YES contracts while selling $143K, indicating a strong preference for the YES outcome. The 24-hour Polymarket volume of $280K closely matches the whale buy volume, suggesting whales were major drivers behind the price shift. Over the market’s lifetime, total volume stands at $874K with 888 unique traders participating.
Notably, Polymarket’s on-chain mid-price for YES is 25.5%, significantly lower than the 40.5% indicated by the Breaking feed, hinting at some divergence between market data sources. However, the alignment of whale flow with the sharp price increase confirms a consensus among large traders backing the blockade scenario.
This combined surge in price and whale buying signals a marked increase in conviction among Polymarket participants about a US announcement of a blockade on Iran before the end of July, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk perceptions within the prediction market community.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +19.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $156K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $299K / $143K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 277 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $280K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 888 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.