Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s YES contract for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales buying $41K into YES, signaling a split between price action and whale behavior.
Whale activity diverged from the sharp price decline, signaling mixed market signals on this maritime transit event.
Trading activity on Polymarket reached 2.7 million trades across nearly 84,000 wallets, highlighting sustained platform engagement.
Whale activity aligned with sharp price rise as market reprices likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on July 12.
Polymarket’s Miami home value market rises sharply with whale buying aligning to price surge, signaling increased confidence in the outcome.
Polymarket’s price for Haaland scoring 8+ goals in the 2026 World Cup plunged from 58.5% to 0.05%, while whale activity failed to support the drop.
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall from 67.5% to 44.5% as whale activity diverged from the price move.
The market for Iran targeting shipping on July 11 rose from 4.6% to 30.8% amid whale activity matching the price move.
Price and whale flow moved together as odds for Miami home values rose sharply in 24 hours.
Haaland’s chance of scoring 8+ goals dropped from 58.0% to 5.5% in 24 hours, with whale flow diverging from price moves.
