The probability that Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 11 jumped sharply by 26.2 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from an estimated 4.6% to 30.8% on Polymarket. This surge reflects a significant repricing of the event’s likelihood within a single day.
Whale activity aligned with this price movement, confirming the shift in market sentiment. Large traders increased their net exposure to YES contracts, reinforcing the upward momentum rather than opposing it. The combined presence of price action and whale flow moving in tandem suggests a coordinated market reassessment of the event’s plausibility.
Trading volume over the last day totaled $5K, indicating active participation but not an exceptionally high turnover relative to some other markets. The convergence of whale bets and price increases signals a meaningful change in expectations rather than a fleeting speculative spike.
This repricing indicates that traders, including major participants, now assign a substantially higher chance to the scenario of Iran targeting shipping on the specified date. The alignment between whale flow and price movement underscores a consensus shift rather than conflicting signals within the market.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +26.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 4.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.