The probability that 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, fell sharply by 30.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 69.5% to 39.5% on Polymarket. This steep decline in the YES contract price reflects a significant shift in market sentiment about this event’s likelihood.
Despite the pronounced price drop, whale trading activity diverged from the price move, with large traders not following the downward repricing. This divergence between whale flow and the price suggests a disconnect between the broader market’s risk assessment and the positions taken by major participants.
The market saw $15K in volume over the 24-hour period, indicating moderate trading interest amid the volatility. The divergence flags potential uncertainty or differing information sets between retail and whale traders regarding maritime traffic through this critical chokepoint.
This combination of a sharp fall in odds alongside contrasting whale behavior points to unsettled market views on whether the Strait of Hormuz will see 40 ships transit on any day before the end of July 2026.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +30.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 39.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 69.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.