Polymarket’s contract on whether Erling Haaland will score 8 or more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup saw a dramatic price collapse of 58.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 58.5% to just 0.05%.
This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around Haaland’s scoring prospects in the tournament. However, on-chain whale flow diverged from the price movement, indicating that large traders did not align their bets with the steep decline in the YES contract’s value.
The divergence between whale activity and the price drop is notable because it suggests that while the market price moved aggressively lower, major participants did not push the contract down with matching volume. Total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $6K, indicating moderate trading activity amid the price swing.
This disconnect between price and whale flow signals a complex dynamic in the market’s assessment of Haaland’s goal-scoring chances.
Overall, the combined price and flow data highlight a volatile repositioning in expectations for Haaland’s World Cup performance, underscoring uncertainty and differing views among market participants.
| Market | Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2759796 |
| 24h price change | +58.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 58.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.