Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Iran shipping strike plunges 19.7 pp despite $5K whale buying
Whale activity diverged sharply from market prices as YES odds dropped from 26.6% to 6.9% on July 9
Jul 9
#%swhales
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 870 stories.
Breaking
Odds for US Withdrawal from MOU Talks by July 10 Drop 15.4 pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale flow diverged from sharply falling YES contract price, signaling conflicting market signals on US MOU withdrawal.
Jul 9
Breaking
Count Binface Second Place Odds Drop 16.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges on Clacton By-Election
Polymarket’s price for Count Binface finishing second falls sharply despite whale buying, signaling a complex market reassessment.
Jul 9
Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by 2026 odds jump 16pp to 47.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $3K net into YES contracts as market price rose sharply, though Polydata's mid-price remains far higher at 87%.
Jul 9
Breaking
Trump UFO declassification odds drop 16pp despite $3K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 16 percentage point decline in the YES price for Trump UFO files market.
Jul 9
Whales
$478K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Switzerland World Cup Win, Market Implies 2.1%
Whales are betting heavily on Switzerland to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite a low market price of 2.1%.
Jul 9
Whales
$400K Whale Flow Backs France Despite 32.0% Market Price on 2026 World Cup Win
A $400K net inflow from whales into France’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts with the market’s 32.0% implied probability amid $104.28M volume.
Jul 9
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro July 17 Release Contract YES Price Drops 29.3pp Despite Whale Buying
Whales increased their net $4K YES bets even as Polymarket’s YES price fell sharply from 41.1% to 11.8% in 24 hours.
Jul 9
Whales
Whales net $454K into Morocco 2026 World Cup win as market prices YES at 3.1%
Large traders have purchased $4.15M in bets on Morocco winning, diverging from the market’s low probability pricing.
Jul 9
Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by end-2026 jumps 21.5pp to 48.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with price surge as market odds near even for AI breakthrough by December 31, 2026.
Jul 9