The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?” saw a dramatic 19.7 percentage point drop in its YES price over 24 hours, falling from 26.6% to 6.9% as of the July 9 snapshot. This sharp repricing occurred against a backdrop of whale buying, with $5K net flow into YES contracts recorded in the same period.
Whales contributed $8K in buy volume and $2K in sell volume, involving 43 unique whales, while total 24-hour volume on the market stood at $7K. Despite the price plunge, the whale net flow was positive, indicating a divergence between large traders’ activity and the broader market price trend. The lifetime market volume is $35K, with 148 unique traders participating overall.
This disconnect between whale behavior and price movement suggests that while the market consensus moved sharply against the likelihood of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 9, some large traders positioned themselves contrarily by increasing YES exposure.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2686764 |
| 24h price change | +19.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 26.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 7.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 43 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 148 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.