The probability that any AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026, surged 16.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 31.5% to 47.5%. This sizable repricing was accompanied by aligned whale activity, with 26 unique whales contributing $6K in buy volume and $3K in sell volume, resulting in a net $3K inflow into YES contracts.
Polymarket’s 24-hour trading volume for this market reached $5K, against a lifetime market volume of $40K and a total of 145 unique traders recorded on-chain. Despite the sharp move in the Polymarket price, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price stands notably higher at 87.0%, highlighting a significant divergence between the platform’s current market odds and the broader on-chain valuation.
The volume and net flow data confirm that the price jump was supported by meaningful capital commitment rather than speculative noise. The persistent gap between Polymarket’s price and the on-chain mid-price signals potential for further volatility or reevaluation as new information emerges.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 47.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 87.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 26 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 145 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.