The market on whether Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election dropped 16.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, with the YES price falling from an estimated 79.5% to 63.0%. This sharp repricing comes amid a notable divergence between whale activity and price movement: while the market price declined, whale flow did not follow suit, indicating that large traders continued to buy into the YES contract despite the falling odds.
Polymarket recorded $14K in volume on this question during the same period, reflecting moderate trading interest. The flow divergence suggests a split in sentiment between retail or smaller traders pushing prices lower and whales betting on a better outcome for Binface. This discrepancy often points to uncertainty or conflicting information influencing the market.
The 16.5pp drop is significant given the initial high probability, implying that recent developments or reassessments are weighing on expectations.
Overall, the combined price decline and opposing whale flow illustrate a market in flux, highlighting contested views on the Clacton by-election’s outcome for Count Binface.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +16.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 63.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 79.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.