The probability that the US will announce withdrawal from Memorandum of Understanding negotiations by July 10 dropped significantly on Polymarket, falling 15.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours from 19.5% to 4.1%. This sharp decline in the YES contract price reflects a notable shift in market sentiment against the event occurring.
However, whale activity diverged from this price movement, with net whale flow into the YES contract contradicting the downward price trend. The sizable $14K volume traded in the market over the past day suggests heightened interest and liquidity, but the opposing signals between price and large trader flow point to uncertainty or differing interpretations of the underlying fundamentals.
This divergence between whale flow and the falling odds indicates that while the broader market is pricing out a US withdrawal announcement by July 10, some large traders are increasing their exposure to that outcome. The combined price drop and whale buying highlight a complex market dynamic rather than a clear consensus on the event’s likelihood.
| Market | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849007 |
| 24h price change | +15.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 4.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.