Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 86 pp to 89.5% with whale buying
Whales and retail traders pushed the “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” market from 3.4% to 89.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 11 jump 22.4 pp to 25.9%
Whale trading aligned with rapid price increase, signaling stronger conviction in the event’s likelihood
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 62.5 points to 77% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with sharp repricing as the market rapidly adjusted to heightened conflict risk.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 36.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 67.5 pp to 82% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket’s ‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?’ contract saw a sharp repricing supported by whale flow, pushing odds from 14.5% to 82%.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 21 pp to 52.5% amid $22K whale bets
Whales pushed net $22K into YES contracts as Polymarket prices for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Riz Ahmed Emmy win odds plunge 25pp to 16.5% as whale flow diverges
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from a 25 percentage point drop in Riz Ahmed’s Emmy odds, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 40pp in 24h
Whale bets diverged sharply from price, signaling a split view on the likelihood of 40 ships crossing by July 31, 2026.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 16pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying diverged sharply from falling market prices, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 18.9 Points Despite Whale Flow
Polymarket’s market on a July 15 launch saw YES contract price plunge from 19.4% to 0.50% while whale activity diverged, signaling skepticism among major bettors.
Jul 12