The probability for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launching by July 15 dropped sharply by 18.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 19.4% to just 0.50% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment as the launch window approaches.
Despite this steep decline in the YES contract price, whale trading activity diverged from the price move, with major bettors not increasing their net exposure to YES positions. This divergence indicates that while the broader market is pricing in a much lower chance of the launch occurring on schedule, large traders have not confirmed this pessimistic view through their trading flow.
The total volume traded on the market over this period was $7K, suggesting moderate liquidity but not enough to fully align whale behavior with the swift price adjustment. The difference between price action and whale trading patterns highlights a potential disconnect between retail or smaller traders driving the price down and larger traders holding more neutral or uncertain positions.
This combined pattern of sharp price decline paired with whale flow divergence suggests cautious skepticism about the launch event’s timing.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +18.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.50% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.