The Polymarket contract asking if 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price plummet 40.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 70.5% to 30.5%. This sharp decline reflects a significant reevaluation of the event’s probability within the prediction market.
Despite the steep drop in price, whale trading activity diverged from this movement, with no net inflow into YES contracts. This divergence between price action and large trader flow suggests that while the broader market is pricing in a much lower chance for the event, whales have not confirmed this bearish shift through their bets.
The market recorded $13K in volume during this period, indicating moderate trading interest but no decisive consensus among participants. The split between price and whale flow highlights uncertainty or differing interpretations of the underlying geopolitical or shipping data influencing the Strait of Hormuz transit probability.
This divergence signals a contested outlook on the event’s likelihood, with the price reflecting waning confidence while whales remain noncommittal or possibly skeptical of the shift. The combined price and flow picture points to a market in flux rather than one converging on a clear forecast.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +40.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.