Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price jumps 54.5 pp to 69.5%
Whale trading activity tracked the rapid rise in odds, confirming a sharp market repricing over 24 hours.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
US blockade on Iran market YES price jumps 21.0 pp to 42.5% with whale buying support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.0 percentage point rise in the Polymarket market's YES price over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 31.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price movement as YES contract fell from 69.0% to 37.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 22.5 points despite $41K whale buy
Whale flow diverged from sharp 24-hour price decline in Polymarket’s US-Iran diplomatic meeting market.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for US blockade on Iran by July 31 jump 23 pp to 45.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the surge with $144K net buys, aligning with the sharp price rise in the past 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Warships Through Strait of Hormuz Odds Jump 18 Points to 46.5%
Whale trading activity aligned with a sharp 18.0 percentage point rise in the YES price over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 25pp to 47.5% as whales back YES with $141K net buys
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 25.0 percentage point rise in the probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket Yes Odds on US Warships Through Strait of Hormuz Jump 22pp to 50.5%
Whale activity tracked with price surge as market shifts sharply on US naval movements by July 2026.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 22pp amid whale flow-price divergence
Whales bought $43K in YES contracts even as the market price fell 22 percentage points in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Whales
$485K Sell Trade on Norway World Cup Win Counters Whale Buying
A single $485K sell order on Norway’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts with $7.48M whale buying in the same market over 24 hours.
Jul 12