Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 31.5 pp in 24h
Price and whale flow diverged sharply as market probability fell from 71.0% to 39.5% despite no whale buying support.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 70pp to 78.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps from 8.5% to 78.5% as whale flow aligns with the sharp price move.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price surges 50.4pp to 100% on FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinal scenario
Whale activity aligns with sharp market repricing in Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals question.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Shipping Attack Market Surges 89.5pp to 92.9% with Whale Support
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” contract jumps from 3.5% to 92.9% as whales add $4K net to YES positions.
Jul 12
Breaking
FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinal odds jump 43.6 pp to 93.1% in 24h
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced the 2026 World Cup semifinal scenario
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 62pp to 70.5% on July 12
Whale activity aligned with sharp price jump, pushing Polymarket’s market odds from 8.5% to 70.5%.
Jul 12
Breaking
“0 ships transit Hormuz by July 14?” YES price jumps 16.9 pp to 19.0% with $13K whale inflow
Whales and overall market moved in tandem as odds climbed sharply from 2.1% to 19.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinals jump 47pp to 96.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices converged as the likelihood of this 2026 World Cup semifinal scenario surged sharply within 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Will Julián Álvarez score at 2026 World Cup? YES odds jump 48.9pp to 100%
Whales supported the rally with $2K net flow into YES as Polymarket price surged from 51.0% to full certainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 66 points to 80.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as bets surged on imminent Iranian military action against a Gulf State.
Jul 12