Breaking
US Iran blockade market YES price jumps 23.5pp to 45% with $160K whale inflow
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rally in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, doubling the market’s odds in 24 hours.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 86pp to 89.4% with whale buying support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in Polymarket odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 65 Percentage Points to 73.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 65pp rise in odds for Iran launching military action against a Gulf state on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24.5pp as whales push $156K into YES
Polymarket’s latest data shows a sharp rise in the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31, backed by aligned whale buying.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES jumps 27.1 points to 91%
Whales supported the surge with $2K net buys, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price surges 68pp to 76.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing, pushing the probability from 8.5% to 76.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran market jumps 19pp as whales push YES to 40.5%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19.0 percentage point rise in YES price on Polymarket, signaling increased conviction in a blockade announcement by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 34pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price plunge to 36.5% on the Strait of Hormuz transit question contrasts with whale flow, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 64.5 points to 73% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of military action on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 17pp to 48.5% with whale buying aligned
Whales added $22K to YES in a $48K volume surge as Polymarket prices rose sharply.
Jul 12