The Polymarket contract asking whether 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse by 34.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 70.5% to 36.5%.
This sharp repricing happened despite whale trading flow diverging from the price move. While the market price sharply dropped, the whale flow did not align with this sell-off, indicating that large traders were not driving or confirming the price decline.
With a total 24-hour volume of $14K, the market is actively trading but the divergence between price and whale flow suggests conflicting signals about the likelihood of the event. The price drop reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment or new information reducing confidence in the transit occurring as predicted.
This combination of a steep price drop with opposing whale trading patterns highlights uncertainty and potential volatility ahead for this contract. The market appears to be reassessing the probability of the Strait of Hormuz transit event, but the split between retail price action and large trader flow leaves the direction unclear.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +34.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.