The market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES contract price climb sharply by 86.0 percentage points over 24 hours, rising from an estimated 3.4% to 89.4% as of the July 12 snapshot.
This dramatic repricing was accompanied by whale buying activity that confirmed the move rather than opposed it. Whales net bought $5K into YES contracts during the same period, with $10K in whale buy volume against $5K in sell volume, reflecting a consensus shift among large traders. The total Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market was $10K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $16K and involving 126 unique traders overall.
The alignment of whale flow with the price surge signals a strong influx of conviction behind the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on the specified date. With 61 unique whales participating in the last 24 hours, the market’s rapid adjustment reflects both retail and institutional reassessment of the event’s probability.
This combined price and flow movement indicates a significant reevaluation of the event’s odds on Polymarket, highlighting how market participants are rapidly incorporating new information or sentiment into their positions.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +86.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 89.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 61 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 126 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.