Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch odds plunge 40.4 pp in 24 hours
Polymarket’s YES contract for a July 15 launch dropped from 40.9% to 0.55% even as whale activity diverged from the price move.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 67.5 Points as Whale Activity Supports Rally
The probability of Iran launching military action against a Gulf State on July 12 soared to 74.5% amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price jumps 22.5 pp to 55.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $20K net buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing odds well above on-chain mid estimates.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?’ YES price jumps 36.0 pp to 55.5%
Whales supported the surge with $166K net inflow into YES, pushing the Polymarket price well above on-chain midpoints.
Jul 12
Breaking
Israel military action odds jump 17.5 points to 63% on Polymarket
Whale trades and price moves aligned as market repriced a military action by August 31 scenario.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran odds jump 36.5pp to 56% as whales back YES with $168K net flow
Polymarket’s US blockade on Iran market saw a sharp odds shift aligned with whale buying, signaling strong conviction in a July 31 announcement.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 33.5 points to 44% on July 12 news
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” contract saw aligned whale bets and price surge, signaling a sharp reassessment of the risk.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Collapse 48.3 Points in 24 Hours
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?” market dropped from 48.8% to 0.45% despite no whale buying in YES contracts.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES odds jump 38.5 percentage points
Polymarket's YES contract for Iranian military action nearly quintupled in probability as whale activity confirmed the sharp move.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” YES price surges 90.6 pp to 92.9% on whale support
Whales backed a dramatic odds shift on Polymarket as the YES contract jumped from 2.3% to 92.9% in 24 hours.
Jul 12