The Polymarket contract asking if the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 saw its YES price surge 36.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 19.5% to 55.5% as of July 12. This dramatic repricing reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment around this geopolitical event.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with a net inflow of $166K into YES contracts over the same period. Total whale buy volume reached $318K, nearly double the $153K in sell volume, across 310 unique whales. This sizable whale participation underpinned the price rally. Meanwhile, overall Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market was $301K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $919K with 946 unique traders involved.
A notable divergence exists between the Polymarket YES price and the Polydata on-chain mid, which currently sits at 25.5%. The Polymarket Breaking feed price at 55.5% suggests that off-chain factors or recent developments have sharply increased perceived odds beyond what on-chain data reflects.
The combined surge in price and strong whale buying signals a reassessment of the likelihood that the US will impose a blockade on Iran by the end of July. The market is pricing in a much higher chance than before, supported by significant whale conviction and trading volume.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +36.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 55.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $166K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $318K / $153K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 310 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $301K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 946 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.