The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 surged 36.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 19.5% to 56.0%. This dramatic repricing was accompanied by a strong alignment of whale activity, with 308 unique whales contributing a net $168K in buying pressure into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $322K, outpacing $154K in sell volume, reflecting firm conviction behind the price move.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on this market reached $301K, a significant portion of the market’s lifetime volume of $917K, indicating heightened trader engagement alongside whale flows. However, the Polymarket Breaking feed’s YES price of 56.0% notably diverges from Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 22.5%, suggesting some discrepancy between the on-chain data and platform-reported odds.
This coordinated price jump and whale buying signal increased confidence in the likelihood of a US blockade announcement within the specified timeframe. The sharp shift in odds combined with substantial whale backing points to a market consensus moving decisively toward this outcome, marking a clear change in sentiment for this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 56.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $168K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $322K / $154K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 308 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $301K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 944 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.