Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Polymarket’s market for a July 15 launch of Starship Flight Test 13 fell from 15.5% to 0.45% in 24 hours, while whale flow diverged by net selling YES contracts.
Polymarket's price for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply, driven by whale buying that moved in step with the price surge.
YES contract price drops from 37.7% to 0.45% despite no whale buying, signaling market skepticism.
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in YES price, signaling aligned conviction on July 31 transit estimates.
Whales added net $2K to YES as Polymarket's odds surged from 64.0% to 87.0% in 24 hours.
Polymarket's latest pricing shows a sharp shift in expectations, backed by $24K net whale inflows into YES contracts.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp repricing of the Iran military action market, pushing YES probability from 9.5% to 67.5%.
Whales supported the surge with $18K net buys, pushing the market well above on-chain mid-price
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 52-point jump in market odds to 61.5%, signaling increased conviction of imminent conflict.
Whale activity moved in line with a sharp rise in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
