The probability that SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 15 collapsed sharply on Polymarket, falling 40.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours to just 0.55% from 40.9%.
This dramatic repricing unfolded despite whale trading flows moving against the price trend, a rare divergence in the prediction market. While the YES contract’s implied odds tumbled, whales did not increase net bets against the launch; instead, they showed net zero flow into YES contracts. This signals a disconnect between large traders’ behavior and the broader market sentiment reflected in pricing.
The 24-hour trading volume on the market was $8K, indicating moderate liquidity amid the rapid shift in expectations.
This combined price and flow picture highlights increased uncertainty or mixed signals around the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 schedule. The market’s steep drop in launch probability contrasts with whale activity, reflecting potential disagreement on the timeline or on new information impacting launch prospects.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851471 |
| 24h price change | +40.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.55% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.