Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 70.5 points as whale flow diverges
YES price on Iran military action drops from 88.5% to 18.0% despite whale activity opposing the move
Jul 16
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 115 stories.
Breaking
Iran withdrawal odds from MOU negotiations drop 22pp despite $159K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from sharply falling market odds in 24 hours on Polymarket’s Iran MOU withdrawal question.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price plunges 60pp to 30%
Whale trading flows diverged sharply from the 60 percentage-point drop in YES price, signaling market uncertainty despite heavy selling
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 23pp Despite $29K Whale Bets
Whales bought $42K in YES shares even as the market slashed the probability from 35.5% to 12.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 15.6 points as whales buy $4K in YES
Whale buying diverged from falling prices as market reevaluated Iran’s July 13 targeting of shipping.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran MOU withdrawal odds drop 17pp to 16.5% amid whale buying divergence
Whales increased exposure to YES contracts even as market price fell sharply on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU talks odds plunge 23.1 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?’ market saw YES price drop sharply despite whale bets moving against the trend.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 23pp despite whale bets rising
Polymarket’s “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” market saw a sharp 23.0 pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals in sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf attack odds plunge 50pp as whale flow diverges from price
Price on Iran military action dropped sharply from 90.5% to 40.5% despite whale bets moving against the decline.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price plunges 34.4 pp amid whale flow divergence
Whales increased YES bets by $4K as market odds dropped from 42.2% to 7.8%, signaling a sharp split between price and whale behavior.
Jul 15