The market on whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24 saw a sharp 23.0 percentage point drop in its YES price over the last 24 hours, falling from 35.5% to 12.5%. This significant decline in implied probability occurred despite whale activity that ran counter to the price movement.
Whales collectively bought $42K worth of YES contracts while selling only $12K, resulting in a net flow of $29K into YES positions. This divergence between whale buying pressure and the falling market price highlights a disconnect between large trader behavior and broader market sentiment. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract totaled $46K, with 116 unique whales participating in the trading.
Since inception, the market has recorded a lifetime volume of $180K with 350 unique traders contributing. The combined data suggest that while the broader market is pricing in a much lower chance of Iran withdrawing from the MOU negotiations by the deadline, whales appear to be betting against this trend, potentially signaling either a different information set or a strategic positioning that contrasts with the general consensus.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement underscores the complexity of trader sentiment and the importance of monitoring both price action and large trader behavior for a comprehensive view of market dynamics.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853059 |
| 24h price change | +23.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 12.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 12.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $29K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 116 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $46K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 350 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.