Breaking
Iran Gulf strike odds plunge 30.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' contract saw a sharp drop in YES price amid opposing whale activity.
Jul 15
#%siran
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 115 stories.
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price plunges 47.3 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s contract on Iran’s targeting of shipping dropped from 55.0% to 7.7% despite $4K whale bets into YES, signaling a sharp market rethink.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 39.5pp to 94.5% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket’s odds for Iran attacking a Gulf State on July 15 jumped sharply as whale flows supported the move, despite a large on-chain price discrepancy.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” YES price falls 33.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for Iranian military action dropped from 91.5% to 58.0% in 24 hours despite whale activity not supporting the sell-off.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 37.5pp to 93.5% as whales back YES on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp jump in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State, pushing the YES contract from 56.0% to 93.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action on July 15? YES jumps 48.5 points to 93.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity of $3K net inflow into YES contracts tracked the sharp price rise amid a $6K 24-hour volume surge.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 42.8 pp despite $7K whale buying
Whale buying of $7K into YES contracts diverged sharply from a 42.8 percentage point drop in the market’s implied probability for Iran targeting shipping on July 13.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds soar 41.5 points to 97.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity moved in step with a rapid jump in market confidence over a day amid $9K volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 36.5pp as whales push YES to 87%
Whale activity and price moved in tandem as the probability for military action surged sharply within 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 37.4 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds on Iran’s Gulf State military action market amid $771K volume.
Jul 14